Strathspey Thistle 0–4 Buckie Thistle

Strathspey Thistle

0 – 4

Buckie Thistle

12/12/2020

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundSeafield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Strathspey Thistle12%

×Draw16%

Buckie Thistle71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Strathspey ThistleExpected goals in this matchBuckie Thistle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

2.62

Strathspey Thistle

1.01

Buckie Thistle

2.62

Buckie Thistle creates 159% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

0.60

creates per match

1.64

3.60

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Strathspey Thistle

0.60

Buckie Thistle

1.64

allows per match

Strathspey Thistle

3.60

Buckie Thistle

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strathspey Thistle+0.00on par

Buckie Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strathspey Thistle ↓

Buckie Thistle →

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–38%

0–45%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Strathspey Thistle or draw

29%

Strathspey Thistle or Buckie Thistle

84%

Draw or Buckie Thistle

88%

Winning margin

Strathspey Thistle wins by 2+

Buckie Thistle wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Strathspey Thistle 1+ goals

64%

Strathspey Thistle 2+ goals

27%

Strathspey Thistle 3+ goals

Buckie Thistle 1+ goals

93%

Buckie Thistle 2+ goals

73%

Buckie Thistle 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Strathspey Thistle (draw refunded)

15%

Buckie Thistle (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Strathspey Thistle at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

Buckie Thistle away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Strathspey Thistle attack 0.60 + Buckie Thistle defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.01

Buckie Thistle attack 1.64 + Strathspey Thistle defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Strathspey Thistle scores more

12%

level

16%

Buckie Thistle scores more

71%

Buckie Thistle at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Buckie Thistle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff