Strasbourg W 1–4 Paris FC W: Result & Stats

Strasbourg W

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Paris FC W

M. Hoeltzel 42'

J. Dufour 86'

K. Korošec 39'

C. Matéo 34'

G. Thiney 11'

11/16/2024

Feminine Division 1 · Round 8Colmar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Strasbourg W24%

×Draw22%

Paris FC W53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Strasbourg WExpected goals in this matchParis FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.92

Strasbourg W

1.23

Paris FC W

1.92

Paris FC W creates 56% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 87 away

1.33

creates per match

1.94

1.90

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Strasbourg W

1.33

Paris FC W

1.94

allows per match

Strasbourg W

1.90

Paris FC W

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strasbourg W+0.00on par

Paris FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strasbourg W ↓

Paris FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Strasbourg W or draw

47%

Strasbourg W or Paris FC W

78%

Draw or Paris FC W

76%

Winning margin

Strasbourg W wins by 2+

10%

Paris FC W wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Strasbourg W 1+ goals

71%

Strasbourg W 2+ goals

35%

Strasbourg W 3+ goals

13%

Paris FC W 1+ goals

85%

Paris FC W 2+ goals

57%

Paris FC W 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Strasbourg W (draw refunded)

31%

Paris FC W (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strasbourg W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

Paris FC W away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.13 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strasbourg W attack 1.33 + Paris FC W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Paris FC W attack 1.94 + Strasbourg W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Strasbourg W scores more

24%

level

22%

Paris FC W scores more

53%

Paris FC W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

G. Thiney

Paris FC W · M

8.5

Match Events

11'

G. Thiney

34'

C. Matéo↳ C. Ould Hocine

39'

K. Korošec

42'

M. Hoeltzel

50'

Amanda Chaney

60'

M. Le Mouël← D. Corboz

60'

M. Bourdieu← C. Matéo

61'

F. Hoarau← M. Hoeltzel

61'

C. Neller← M. Babou

68'

M. Garbino← K. Bussy

74'

M. Duporge← S. Enge

74'

K. Chapelle← E. Loving

84'

F. Baldé← L. Hannequin

86'

T. Sissoko← D. Davis

86'

J. Dufour↳ M. Bourdieu

87'

M. N'Dongala← C. Ould Hocine

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StrasbourgParis

Overview

43%Possession57%

7Total Shots22

2Corners7

12Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots22

2On Target10

4Off Target6

1Blocked6

5Inside Box20

2Outside Box2

Passing

43%Possession57%

363Total Passes466

256Accurate Passes342

71%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

6Offsides2