Strasbourg 1–1 Reims: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Strasbourg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Reims

A. Djiku 45+3'

F. Balogun 81'

8/21/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade de la Meinau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Strasbourg51%

×Draw23%

Reims26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StrasbourgExpected goals in this matchReims

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.23

Strasbourg

1.81

Reims

1.23

Strasbourg creates 47% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 5 away

1.61

creates per match

1.23

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Strasbourg

1.61

Reims

1.23

allows per match

Strasbourg

1.23

Reims

2.00

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Strasbourg+0.16scores more

Reims-0.43scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strasbourg ↓

Reims →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Strasbourg or draw

74%

Strasbourg or Reims

77%

Draw or Reims

49%

Winning margin

Strasbourg wins by 2+

28%

Reims wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Strasbourg 1+ goals

84%

Strasbourg 2+ goals

54%

Strasbourg 3+ goals

27%

Reims 1+ goals

71%

Reims 2+ goals

35%

Reims 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Strasbourg (draw refunded)

66%

Reims (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strasbourg at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Reims away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strasbourg attack 1.61 + Reims defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Reims attack 1.23 + Strasbourg defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Strasbourg scores more

51%

level

23%

Reims scores more

26%

Strasbourg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Strasbourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Thomasson

Strasbourg · M

7.9

Match Events

14'

Maxime Busi

40'

Alexander Djiku

45+3'

A. Djiku↳ A. Thomasson

62'

A. Zeneli← D. Lopy

64'

L. Ajorque← H. Diallo

64'

R. Pierre-Gabriel← D. Liénard

70'

Marshall Munetsi

77'

J. Aholou← A. Thomasson

77'

A. Flips← K. Doumbia

77'

J. Cajuste← M. Busi

78'

H. Diarra← T. Delaine

81'

F. Balogun↳ A. Flips

88'

Jens Cajuste

88'

L. Mothiba← K. Gameiro

90+3'

Wout Faes

90+4'

E. Touré← J. Ito

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StrasbourgReims

Overview

64%Possession36%

12Total Shots12

5Corners4

12Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots12

3On Target6

5Off Target3

4Blocked3

8Inside Box9

4Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

531Total Passes304

435Accurate Passes230

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides5