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Strasbourg vs Cercle Brugge — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Strasbourg
Strasbourg
CANC
16:00
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
7/17/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade Camille Fournier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Strasbourg49%
×Draw25%
Cercle Brugge25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strasbourg
1.55
Cercle Brugge
1.03

Strasbourg creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Strasbourg
1.00
Cercle Brugge
1.40

allows per match

Strasbourg
0.67
Cercle Brugge
2.10

finishing

Strasbourg+0.00on par
Cercle Brugge+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strasbourg ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Strasbourg or draw
75%
Strasbourg or Cercle Brugge
75%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
51%

Winning margin

Strasbourg wins by 2+
25%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Strasbourg 1+ goals
79%
Strasbourg 2+ goals
46%
Strasbourg 3+ goals
20%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
64%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
28%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Strasbourg (draw refunded)
66%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strasbourg at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strasbourg attack 1.00 + Cercle Brugge defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.55

Cercle Brugge attack 1.40 + Strasbourg defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Strasbourg scores more
49%
level
25%
Cercle Brugge scores more
25%

Strasbourg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Strasbourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Strasbourg vs Cercle Brugge — Match Preview

Strasbourg face Cercle Brugge on July 17, 2021 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Strasbourg host Cercle Brugge at Stade Camille Fournier.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.