Strasbourg 3–1 Breidablik: Result & Stats

Strasbourg

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Breidablik

J. Enciso 90'

M. Godo 80'

S. Nanasi 11'

H. Gunnlaugsson 37'

12/18/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 6Stade de la Meinau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Strasbourg65%

×Draw19%

Breidablik16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StrasbourgExpected goals in this matchBreidablik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.98

Strasbourg

2.21

Breidablik

0.98

Strasbourg creates 126% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.35

creates per match

0.83

1.12

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Strasbourg

2.35

Breidablik

0.83

allows per match

Strasbourg

1.12

Breidablik

2.07

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Strasbourg-0.52scores less

Breidablik-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strasbourg ↓

Breidablik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Strasbourg or draw

84%

Strasbourg or Breidablik

81%

Draw or Breidablik

35%

Winning margin

Strasbourg wins by 2+

42%

Breidablik wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Strasbourg 1+ goals

89%

Strasbourg 2+ goals

65%

Strasbourg 3+ goals

38%

Breidablik 1+ goals

62%

Breidablik 2+ goals

26%

Breidablik 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Strasbourg (draw refunded)

81%

Breidablik (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strasbourg at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.12 · 6 matches

Breidablik away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.07 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strasbourg attack 2.35 + Breidablik defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.21

Breidablik attack 0.83 + Strasbourg defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Strasbourg scores more

65%

level

19%

Breidablik scores more

16%

Strasbourg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Strasbourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

S. Nanasi

Strasbourg · M

10.0

Match Events

11'

S. Nanasi↳ B. Chilwell

19'

Viktor Orn Margeirsson

37'

H. Gunnlaugsson

42'

Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson

59'

G. Hallsson← A. Yeoman

62'

D. Moreira← R. Nzingoula

62'

J. Enciso← S. Amo-Ameyaw

62'

A. Ouattara← S. El Mourabet

70'

V. Barco← M. Amougou

76'

A. Bjarnason← K. Jonsson

80'

M. Godo↳ J. Enciso

84'

K. Steindorsson← V. Einarsson

84'

K. Kristinsson← A. Thorsteinsson

89'

I. Doukoure← J. Panichelli

90'

J. Enciso↳ S. Nanasi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StrasbourgBreidablik

Overview

71%Possession29%

22Total Shots9

3.56Expected Goals (xG)0.71

8Corners3

4Fouls12

Shots

22Total Shots9

11On Target2

7Off Target3

4Blocked4

16Inside Box4

6Outside Box5

Passing

71%Possession29%

782Total Passes320

732Accurate Passes261

94%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

1.34Goals Prevented1.34

Discipline

4Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2