Strasbourg Koenigshoffen 0–0 Clermont Foot

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Clermont Foot

H. Kekambus 120+10' (pen)

H. Ibrahim Sidow 120+8' (pen)

A. Mouakit 120+4' (pen)

M. Cherief 120+2' (pen)

F. Ogier 120+6' (pen)

Y. Massolin 120+5' (pen)

M. Cham 120+1' (pen)

1/7/2023

Coupe de France · Round of 64Stade Émile Stahl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen22%

×Draw25%

Clermont Foot53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Strasbourg KoenigshoffenExpected goals in this matchClermont Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.61

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen

0.94

Clermont Foot

1.61

Clermont Foot creates 71% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.20

creates per match

1.83

1.40

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen

1.20

Clermont Foot

1.83

allows per match

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen

1.40

Clermont Foot

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen+0.00on par

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen ↓

Clermont Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen or draw

47%

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen or Clermont Foot

75%

Draw or Clermont Foot

78%

Winning margin

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen wins by 2+

8%

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen 1+ goals

61%

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen 2+ goals

24%

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen 3+ goals

7%

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

80%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

48%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen (draw refunded)

29%

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen attack 1.20 + Clermont Foot defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.94

Clermont Foot attack 1.83 + Strasbourg Koenigshoffen defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen scores more

22%

level

25%

Clermont Foot scores more

53%

Clermont Foot at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

O. Djoco

Clermont Foot · G

7.9

Match Events

46'

G. Kyei← K. Andrić

64'

J. Allevinah← Jérémie Bela

64'

A. Seidu← M. Zeffane

65'

H. Kekambus← T. Schall

70'

P. Mba Fossi← F. Isufi

76'

Y. Massolin← M. Caufriez

81'

C. Robin← K. Traore

81'

H. Ibrahim Sidow← S. Haddaoui

86'

B. Diallo← Neto Borges

120+1'

M. ChamPenalty

120+2'

M. CheriefPenalty

120+3'

J. AllevinahMissed penalty

120+4'

A. MouakitPenalty

120+5'

Y. MassolinPenalty

120+6'

F. OgierPenalty

120+7'

W. TineMissed penalty

120+8'

H. Ibrahim SidowPenalty

120+9'

B. DialloMissed penalty

120+10'

H. KekambusPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StrasbourgClermont

Overview

31%Possession69%

4Total Shots12

1Corners9

7Fouls13

Shots

4Total Shots12

3On Target4

0Off Target4

1Blocked4

2Inside Box7

2Outside Box5

Passing

31%Possession69%

305Total Passes690

187Accurate Passes577

61%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls13