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Stranraer vs Larne — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Stranraer
Stranraer
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Larne
Larne
R. Edgar 65'
P. O'Neill 61'
6/22/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stair Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stranraer25%
×Draw32%
Larne43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stranraer
0.77
Larne
1.10

Larne creates 43% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Stranraer
1.25
Larne
1.71

allows per match

Stranraer
0.50
Larne
0.29

finishing

Stranraer+0.00on par
Larne+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stranraer ↓

Larne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Stranraer or draw
57%
Stranraer or Larne
68%
Draw or Larne
75%

Winning margin

Stranraer wins by 2+
8%
Larne wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Stranraer 1+ goals
54%
Stranraer 2+ goals
18%
Stranraer 3+ goals
4%
Larne 1+ goals
67%
Larne 2+ goals
30%
Larne 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stranraer (draw refunded)
37%
Larne (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stranraer at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Larne away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stranraer attack 1.25 + Larne defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.77

Larne attack 1.71 + Stranraer defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stranraer scores more
25%
level
32%
Larne scores more
43%

Larne at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Larne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
P. O'Neill
65'
R. Edgar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stranraer vs Larne

Stranraer and Larne drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 22, 2024.

Goals: P. O'Neill (61'), R. Edgar (65').

The match was played at Stair Park in Stranraer.