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Stranraer vs Elgin City — League Two 2018

Stranraer
Stranraer
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Elgin City
Elgin City
9/20/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 7Stair Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Stranraer44%
×Draw26%
Elgin City30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stranraer
1.46
Elgin City
1.15

Stranraer creates 27% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 134 away

creates per match

Stranraer
1.29
Elgin City
1.10

allows per match

Stranraer
1.19
Elgin City
1.63

finishing

Stranraer+0.00on par
Elgin City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stranraer ↓

Elgin City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Stranraer or draw
70%
Stranraer or Elgin City
74%
Draw or Elgin City
56%

Winning margin

Stranraer wins by 2+
22%
Elgin City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stranraer 1+ goals
77%
Stranraer 2+ goals
43%
Stranraer 3+ goals
18%
Elgin City 1+ goals
68%
Elgin City 2+ goals
32%
Elgin City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stranraer (draw refunded)
60%
Elgin City (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stranraer at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Elgin City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stranraer attack 1.29 + Elgin City defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Elgin City attack 1.10 + Stranraer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stranraer scores more
44%
level
26%
Elgin City scores more
30%

Stranraer at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stranraer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Stranraer 1–1 Elgin City

Stranraer and Elgin City drew 1-1 in League Two on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stair Park in Stranraer.