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Stranraer vs Dundee — League Cup 2018

Stranraer
Stranraer
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Dundee
Dundee
7/16/2022League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 4Stair Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Stranraer21%
×Draw21%
Dundee58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stranraer
1.19
Dundee
2.09

Dundee creates 76% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

creates per match

Stranraer
1.64
Dundee
2.11

allows per match

Stranraer
2.07
Dundee
0.74

finishing

Stranraer+0.00on par
Dundee+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stranraer ↓

Dundee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Stranraer or draw
42%
Stranraer or Dundee
79%
Draw or Dundee
79%

Winning margin

Stranraer wins by 2+
8%
Dundee wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Stranraer 1+ goals
70%
Stranraer 2+ goals
33%
Stranraer 3+ goals
12%
Dundee 1+ goals
88%
Dundee 2+ goals
62%
Dundee 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Stranraer (draw refunded)
27%
Dundee (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stranraer at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

Dundee away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stranraer attack 1.64 + Dundee defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dundee attack 2.11 + Stranraer defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Stranraer scores more
21%
level
21%
Dundee scores more
58%

Dundee at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dundee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Stranraer 0–3 Dundee

Dundee beat Stranraer 3-0 in League Cup on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stair Park in Stranraer.