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Stranraer vs Clyde — League Two 2018

Stranraer
Stranraer
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Clyde
Clyde
8/23/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Stair Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Stranraer38%
×Draw26%
Clyde36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stranraer
1.38
Clyde
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 72 away

creates per match

Stranraer
1.29
Clyde
1.46

allows per match

Stranraer
1.19
Clyde
1.46

finishing

Stranraer+0.00on par
Clyde+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stranraer ↓

Clyde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stranraer or draw
64%
Stranraer or Clyde
74%
Draw or Clyde
62%

Winning margin

Stranraer wins by 2+
18%
Clyde wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Stranraer 1+ goals
75%
Stranraer 2+ goals
40%
Stranraer 3+ goals
16%
Clyde 1+ goals
73%
Clyde 2+ goals
38%
Clyde 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stranraer (draw refunded)
52%
Clyde (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stranraer at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Clyde away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stranraer attack 1.29 + Clyde defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38

Clyde attack 1.46 + Stranraer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stranraer scores more
38%
level
26%
Clyde scores more
36%

Stranraer at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stranraer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Stranraer 1–1 Clyde

Stranraer and Clyde drew 1-1 in League Two on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stair Park in Stranraer.