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Stranraer vs Ayr Utd — League Cup 2026

Stranraer
Stranraer
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
A. Traynor 57'
J. Dolan 40' (pen)
R. Taylor 79' (pen), 60'
B. Summers 49'
7/11/2026League CupLeague Cup · Group StageStair Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stranraer27%
×Draw21%
Ayr Utd52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stranraer
1.49
Ayr Utd
2.13

Ayr Utd creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 20 away

creates per match

Stranraer
1.53
Ayr Utd
2.20

allows per match

Stranraer
2.07
Ayr Utd
1.45

finishing

Stranraer+0.00on par
Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stranraer ↓

Ayr Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Stranraer or draw
48%
Stranraer or Ayr Utd
79%
Draw or Ayr Utd
73%

Winning margin

Stranraer wins by 2+
12%
Ayr Utd wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Stranraer 1+ goals
77%
Stranraer 2+ goals
44%
Stranraer 3+ goals
19%
Ayr Utd 1+ goals
88%
Ayr Utd 2+ goals
63%
Ayr Utd 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Stranraer (draw refunded)
34%
Ayr Utd (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stranraer at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Ayr Utd away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stranraer attack 1.53 + Ayr Utd defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.49

Ayr Utd attack 2.20 + Stranraer defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stranraer scores more
27%
level
21%
Ayr Utd scores more
52%

Ayr Utd at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
K. Nair
34'
Z. Bruce
37'
A. Traynor
39'
S. Want
40'
J. DolanPenalty
46'
L. Dick← S. McMann
49'
B. Summers↳ R. Lyon
57'
A. Traynor↳ A. Quigg
58'
B. Coll← F. Ecrepont
58'
A. Healy← A. Traynor
60'
R. Taylor↳ K. Shanks
71'
O. Stirton← K. Shanks
73'
R. Lyon
74'
D. Clelland← J. Dolan
74'
M. McLuckie← K. Nair
74'
L. Gillie← R. Hughes
79'
E. Dunne
79'
R. TaylorPenalty
80'
K. Mitchell← M. McKenzie
87'
J. Hislop← S. Want
87'
D. Watret← R. Taylor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stranraer vs Ayr Utd

Ayr Utd beat Stranraer 3-2 in League Cup on July 11, 2026.

Goals: J. Dolan (40' pen), B. Summers (49'), A. Traynor (57'), R. Taylor (60', 79' pen).

The match was played at Stair Park in Stranraer.