Stranraer 2–2 Albion Rovers: Result & Stats

Stranraer

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Albion Rovers

R. Paton 58'

A. Sonkur 18'

G. Fotheringham 44'

S. Jamieson 29'

10/13/2020

League Cup · Group Stage - 4Stair Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Stranraer56%

×Draw20%

Albion Rovers23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StranraerExpected goals in this matchAlbion Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.37

Stranraer

2.21

Albion Rovers

1.37

Stranraer creates 61% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

1.64

creates per match

0.67

2.07

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Stranraer

1.64

Albion Rovers

0.67

allows per match

Stranraer

2.07

Albion Rovers

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stranraer+0.00on par

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stranraer ↓

Albion Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Stranraer or draw

77%

Stranraer or Albion Rovers

80%

Draw or Albion Rovers

44%

Winning margin

Stranraer wins by 2+

34%

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stranraer 1+ goals

89%

Stranraer 2+ goals

65%

Stranraer 3+ goals

38%

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

75%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

40%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Stranraer (draw refunded)

71%

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stranraer at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stranraer attack 1.64 + Albion Rovers defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.21

Albion Rovers attack 0.67 + Stranraer defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Stranraer scores more

56%

level

20%

Albion Rovers scores more

23%

Stranraer at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Stranraer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

A. Sonkur↳ A. Stirling

29'

S. Jamieson↳ M. Aitken

44'

G. Fotheringham↳ M. Aitken

46'

A. Cummins← A. Sonkur

57'

J. Hilton

58'

R. Paton↳ A. Stirling

60'

K. Millar

63'

K. Doherty← J. Moore

66'

C. Elliott← J. Hilton

68'

A. Stirling

73'

T. Orr← D. Duffy

76'

K. Doherty

83'

C. McManus

86'

M. Aitken

88'

J. Leslie← S. Jamieson

Stranraer

Albion

1

4

3

5

6

⚽

Fothering

2

Lynas

8

Wilson

11

▼

Moore

10

A

Aitken

9

⚽

▼

7

1

2

3

18

5

⚽

▼

Sonkur

10

A

Stirling

15

Millar

6

McManus

9

▼

Duffy

17

⚽

Paton

7

▼

Hilton

Manager: S. Farrell

46'▲A. Cummins←▼A. Sonkur

66'▲C. Elliott←▼J. Hilton

73'▲T. Orr←▼D. Duffy

Stranraer substitutes

4Cummins14Elliott19Orr21Walker16McIntyre8Gallagher22Hamill

Manager: B. Reid

63'▲K. Doherty←▼J. Moore

88'▲J. Leslie←▼S. Jamieson

Albion Rovers substitutes

12Doherty14Leslie18Fernie15Moran17Henry16Dolan