Albion Rovers 0–5 Stranraer: Result & Stats

Albion Rovers

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Stranraer

4/9/2022

League Two · Round 33The Reigart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Albion Rovers35%

×Draw26%

Stranraer39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albion RoversExpected goals in this matchStranraer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.37

Albion Rovers

1.29

Stranraer

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 103 away

1.05

creates per match

1.14

1.60

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Albion Rovers

1.05

Stranraer

1.14

allows per match

Albion Rovers

1.60

Stranraer

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Stranraer+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Rovers ↓

Stranraer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Albion Rovers or draw

61%

Albion Rovers or Stranraer

74%

Draw or Stranraer

65%

Winning margin

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

15%

Stranraer wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

72%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

37%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

14%

Stranraer 1+ goals

75%

Stranraer 2+ goals

40%

Stranraer 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

48%

Stranraer (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion Rovers at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.60 · 78 matches

Stranraer away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.54 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion Rovers attack 1.05 + Stranraer defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.29

Stranraer attack 1.14 + Albion Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Albion Rovers scores more

35%

level

26%

Stranraer scores more

39%

Stranraer at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stranraer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff