Strání 3–3 Viktorie Přerov: Result & Stats

Strání

FT

3 – 3

Viktorie Přerov

10/17/2021

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 12Stadion na Zelničkách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Strání58%

×Draw20%

Viktorie Přerov22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StráníExpected goals in this matchViktorie Přerov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.29

Strání

2.21

Viktorie Přerov

1.29

Strání creates 71% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 53 away

2.08

creates per match

1.51

1.06

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Strání

2.08

Viktorie Přerov

1.51

allows per match

Strání

1.06

Viktorie Přerov

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strání+0.00on par

Viktorie Přerov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strání ↓

Viktorie Přerov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Strání or draw

78%

Strání or Viktorie Přerov

80%

Draw or Viktorie Přerov

42%

Winning margin

Strání wins by 2+

36%

Viktorie Přerov wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Strání 1+ goals

89%

Strání 2+ goals

65%

Strání 3+ goals

38%

Viktorie Přerov 1+ goals

72%

Viktorie Přerov 2+ goals

37%

Viktorie Přerov 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Strání (draw refunded)

73%

Viktorie Přerov (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strání at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.06 · 53 matches

Viktorie Přerov away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.34 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strání attack 2.08 + Viktorie Přerov defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.21

Viktorie Přerov attack 1.51 + Strání defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Strání scores more

58%

level

20%

Viktorie Přerov scores more

22%

Strání at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Strání will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff