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Strání vs Nový Jičín — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Strání
Strání
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Nový Jičín
Nový Jičín
3/17/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 17Stadion na Zelničkách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Strání63%
×Draw20%
Nový Jičín17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strání
2.21
Nový Jičín
1.06

Strání creates 108% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 15 away

creates per match

Strání
2.08
Nový Jičín
1.07

allows per match

Strání
1.06
Nový Jičín
2.33

finishing

Strání+0.00on par
Nový Jičín+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strání ↓

Nový Jičín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Strání or draw
83%
Strání or Nový Jičín
80%
Draw or Nový Jičín
37%

Winning margin

Strání wins by 2+
40%
Nový Jičín wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Strání 1+ goals
89%
Strání 2+ goals
65%
Strání 3+ goals
38%
Nový Jičín 1+ goals
65%
Nový Jičín 2+ goals
29%
Nový Jičín 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Strání (draw refunded)
79%
Nový Jičín (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strání at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.06 · 53 matches

Nový Jičín away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strání attack 2.08 + Nový Jičín defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.21

Nový Jičín attack 1.07 + Strání defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Strání scores more
63%
level
20%
Nový Jičín scores more
17%

Strání at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Strání will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: Strání 3–0 Nový Jičín

Strání beat Nový Jičín 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion na Zelničkách in Strání.