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Strání vs Kostelec na Hané — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Strání
Strání
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Kostelec na Hané
Kostelec na Hané
4/13/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 21Stadion na Zelničkách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Strání62%
×Draw20%
Kostelec na Hané17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strání
2.10
Kostelec na Hané
1.00

Strání creates 110% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 15 away

creates per match

Strání
2.08
Kostelec na Hané
0.93

allows per match

Strání
1.06
Kostelec na Hané
2.13

finishing

Strání+0.00on par
Kostelec na Hané+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strání ↓

Kostelec na Hané →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Strání or draw
83%
Strání or Kostelec na Hané
80%
Draw or Kostelec na Hané
38%

Winning margin

Strání wins by 2+
39%
Kostelec na Hané wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Strání 1+ goals
88%
Strání 2+ goals
62%
Strání 3+ goals
35%
Kostelec na Hané 1+ goals
63%
Kostelec na Hané 2+ goals
26%
Kostelec na Hané 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Strání (draw refunded)
78%
Kostelec na Hané (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strání at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.06 · 53 matches

Kostelec na Hané away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strání attack 2.08 + Kostelec na Hané defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.10

Kostelec na Hané attack 0.93 + Strání defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Strání scores more
62%
level
20%
Kostelec na Hané scores more
17%

Strání at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Strání will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Strání vs Kostelec na Hané

Strání beat Kostelec na Hané 5-1 in 4. liga - Divizie E on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion na Zelničkách in Strání.