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Strání vs HFK Olomouc — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Strání
Strání
FT
1 – 0
HFK Olomouc
HFK Olomouc
9/19/20214. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 8Stadion na Zelničkách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Strání62%
×Draw19%
HFK Olomouc18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strání
2.27
HFK Olomouc
1.14

Strání creates 99% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 66 away

creates per match

Strání
2.08
HFK Olomouc
1.21

allows per match

Strání
1.06
HFK Olomouc
2.45

finishing

Strání+0.00on par
HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strání ↓

HFK Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Strání or draw
82%
Strání or HFK Olomouc
81%
Draw or HFK Olomouc
38%

Winning margin

Strání wins by 2+
40%
HFK Olomouc wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Strání 1+ goals
90%
Strání 2+ goals
66%
Strání 3+ goals
39%
HFK Olomouc 1+ goals
68%
HFK Olomouc 2+ goals
32%
HFK Olomouc 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Strání (draw refunded)
78%
HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strání at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.06 · 53 matches

HFK Olomouc away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strání attack 2.08 + HFK Olomouc defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.27

HFK Olomouc attack 1.21 + Strání defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Strání scores more
62%
level
19%
HFK Olomouc scores more
18%

Strání at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Strání will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Strání vs HFK Olomouc

Strání beat HFK Olomouc 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion na Zelničkách in Strání.