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Strání vs Baťov — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Strání
Strání
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Baťov
Baťov
4/12/20264. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 21Stadion na Zelnickach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Strání60%
×Draw21%
Baťov19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strání
2.10
Baťov
1.11

Strání creates 89% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 56 away

creates per match

Strání
2.08
Baťov
1.16

allows per match

Strání
1.06
Baťov
2.13

finishing

Strání+0.00on par
Baťov+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strání ↓

Baťov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Strání or draw
81%
Strání or Baťov
79%
Draw or Baťov
40%

Winning margin

Strání wins by 2+
37%
Baťov wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Strání 1+ goals
88%
Strání 2+ goals
62%
Strání 3+ goals
35%
Baťov 1+ goals
67%
Baťov 2+ goals
30%
Baťov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Strání (draw refunded)
75%
Baťov (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strání at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.06 · 53 matches

Baťov away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.13 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strání attack 2.08 + Baťov defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.10

Baťov attack 1.16 + Strání defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Strání scores more
60%
level
21%
Baťov scores more
19%

Strání at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Strání will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Strání vs Baťov

Strání beat Baťov 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie E on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion na Zelnickach.