jerv 0–1 Nest-Sotra: Result & Stats | 1. Division

jerv

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nest-Sotra

10/27/2019

1. Division · Round 28J.J. Ugland Stadion - Levermyr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

jerv40%

×Draw26%

Nest-Sotra34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

jervExpected goals in this matchNest-Sotra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.28

jerv

1.41

Nest-Sotra

1.28

jerv creates 10% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 31 away

1.36

creates per match

1.23

1.33

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

jerv

1.36

Nest-Sotra

1.23

allows per match

jerv

1.33

Nest-Sotra

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

jerv+0.00on par

Nest-Sotra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

jerv ↓

Nest-Sotra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

jerv or draw

66%

jerv or Nest-Sotra

74%

Draw or Nest-Sotra

60%

Winning margin

jerv wins by 2+

19%

Nest-Sotra wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

jerv 1+ goals

76%

jerv 2+ goals

41%

jerv 3+ goals

17%

Nest-Sotra 1+ goals

72%

Nest-Sotra 2+ goals

37%

Nest-Sotra 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

jerv (draw refunded)

54%

Nest-Sotra (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

jerv at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.33 · 75 matches

Nest-Sotra away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

jerv attack 1.36 + Nest-Sotra defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Nest-Sotra attack 1.23 + jerv defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

jerv scores more

40%

level

26%

Nest-Sotra scores more

34%

jerv at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "jerv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff