Straelen 3–0 Union Frintrop: Result & Stats

Straelen

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Union Frintrop

12/8/2023

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 17SV Straelen Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Straelen58%

×Draw23%

Union Frintrop19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StraelenExpected goals in this matchUnion Frintrop

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.94

Straelen

1.81

Union Frintrop

0.94

Straelen creates 93% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 34 away

1.80

creates per match

0.97

0.90

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Straelen

1.80

Union Frintrop

0.97

allows per match

Straelen

0.90

Union Frintrop

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Straelen+0.00on par

Union Frintrop+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Straelen ↓

Union Frintrop →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Straelen or draw

81%

Straelen or Union Frintrop

77%

Draw or Union Frintrop

42%

Winning margin

Straelen wins by 2+

33%

Union Frintrop wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Straelen 1+ goals

84%

Straelen 2+ goals

54%

Straelen 3+ goals

27%

Union Frintrop 1+ goals

61%

Union Frintrop 2+ goals

24%

Union Frintrop 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Straelen (draw refunded)

75%

Union Frintrop (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Straelen at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Union Frintrop away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Straelen attack 1.80 + Union Frintrop defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.81

Union Frintrop attack 0.97 + Straelen defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Straelen scores more

58%

level

23%

Union Frintrop scores more

19%

Straelen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Straelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff