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Straelen vs SF Hamborn — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Straelen
Straelen
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
SF Hamborn
SF Hamborn
10/1/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 8Sportzentrum an der Römerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Straelen58%
×Draw20%
SF Hamborn21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Straelen
2.19
SF Hamborn
1.26

Straelen creates 74% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 37 away

creates per match

Straelen
1.80
SF Hamborn
1.62

allows per match

Straelen
0.90
SF Hamborn
2.59

finishing

Straelen+0.00on par
SF Hamborn+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Straelen ↓

SF Hamborn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Straelen or draw
79%
Straelen or SF Hamborn
80%
Draw or SF Hamborn
42%

Winning margin

Straelen wins by 2+
36%
SF Hamborn wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Straelen 1+ goals
89%
Straelen 2+ goals
64%
Straelen 3+ goals
37%
SF Hamborn 1+ goals
72%
SF Hamborn 2+ goals
36%
SF Hamborn 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Straelen (draw refunded)
73%
SF Hamborn (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Straelen at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

SF Hamborn away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Straelen attack 1.80 + SF Hamborn defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.19

SF Hamborn attack 1.62 + Straelen defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Straelen scores more
58%
level
20%
SF Hamborn scores more
21%

Straelen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Straelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Straelen 5–0 SF Hamborn

Straelen beat SF Hamborn 5-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Sportzentrum an der Römerstraße in Straelen am Niederrhein.