Straelen 2–1 Schonnebeck: Result & Stats

Straelen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Schonnebeck

9/1/2023

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 4Sportzentrum an der Römerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Straelen43%

×Draw24%

Schonnebeck33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StraelenExpected goals in this matchSchonnebeck

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.45

Straelen

1.69

Schonnebeck

1.45

Straelen creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 91 away

1.80

creates per match

2.00

0.90

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Straelen

1.80

Schonnebeck

2.00

allows per match

Straelen

0.90

Schonnebeck

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Straelen+0.00on par

Schonnebeck+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Straelen ↓

Schonnebeck →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Straelen or draw

67%

Straelen or Schonnebeck

76%

Draw or Schonnebeck

57%

Winning margin

Straelen wins by 2+

23%

Schonnebeck wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Straelen 1+ goals

82%

Straelen 2+ goals

50%

Straelen 3+ goals

24%

Schonnebeck 1+ goals

77%

Schonnebeck 2+ goals

42%

Schonnebeck 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Straelen (draw refunded)

57%

Schonnebeck (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Straelen at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Schonnebeck away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.57 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Straelen attack 1.80 + Schonnebeck defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Schonnebeck attack 2.00 + Straelen defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Straelen scores more

43%

level

24%

Schonnebeck scores more

33%

Straelen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Straelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff