Straelen 1–1 Mülheimer: Result & Stats

Straelen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mülheimer

8/18/2023

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 2Sportzentrum an der Römerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Straelen65%

×Draw20%

Mülheimer15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StraelenExpected goals in this matchMülheimer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.94

Straelen

2.17

Mülheimer

0.94

Straelen creates 131% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 34 away

1.80

creates per match

0.97

0.90

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Straelen

1.80

Mülheimer

0.97

allows per match

Straelen

0.90

Mülheimer

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Straelen+0.00on par

Mülheimer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Straelen ↓

Mülheimer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Straelen or draw

85%

Straelen or Mülheimer

80%

Draw or Mülheimer

35%

Winning margin

Straelen wins by 2+

42%

Mülheimer wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Straelen 1+ goals

89%

Straelen 2+ goals

64%

Straelen 3+ goals

36%

Mülheimer 1+ goals

61%

Mülheimer 2+ goals

24%

Mülheimer 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Straelen (draw refunded)

81%

Mülheimer (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Straelen at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Mülheimer away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Straelen attack 1.80 + Mülheimer defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.17

Mülheimer attack 0.97 + Straelen defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Straelen scores more

65%

level

20%

Mülheimer scores more

15%

Straelen at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Straelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff