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Straelen vs Homberg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Straelen
Straelen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Homberg
Homberg
9/15/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 6Sportzentrum an der Römerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Straelen51%
×Draw23%
Homberg26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Straelen
1.81
Homberg
1.21

Straelen creates 50% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 71 away

creates per match

Straelen
1.80
Homberg
1.51

allows per match

Straelen
0.90
Homberg
1.83

finishing

Straelen+0.00on par
Homberg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Straelen ↓

Homberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Straelen or draw
74%
Straelen or Homberg
77%
Draw or Homberg
49%

Winning margin

Straelen wins by 2+
29%
Homberg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Straelen 1+ goals
84%
Straelen 2+ goals
54%
Straelen 3+ goals
27%
Homberg 1+ goals
70%
Homberg 2+ goals
34%
Homberg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Straelen (draw refunded)
67%
Homberg (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Straelen at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Homberg away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.83 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Straelen attack 1.80 + Homberg defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

Homberg attack 1.51 + Straelen defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Straelen scores more
51%
level
23%
Homberg scores more
26%

Straelen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Straelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Straelen 1–0 Homberg

Straelen beat Homberg 1-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on September 15, 2023.

The match was played at Sportzentrum an der Römerstraße in Straelen am Niederrhein.