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Straelen vs Germania Ratingen — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Straelen
Straelen
CANC
14:00
Germania Ratingen
Germania Ratingen
2/18/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 19Sportzentrum an der Römerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Straelen46%
×Draw23%
Germania Ratingen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Straelen
1.73
Germania Ratingen
1.38

Straelen creates 25% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 91 away

creates per match

Straelen
1.80
Germania Ratingen
1.85

allows per match

Straelen
0.90
Germania Ratingen
1.67

finishing

Straelen+0.00on par
Germania Ratingen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Straelen ↓

Germania Ratingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Straelen or draw
69%
Straelen or Germania Ratingen
77%
Draw or Germania Ratingen
54%

Winning margin

Straelen wins by 2+
24%
Germania Ratingen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Straelen 1+ goals
82%
Straelen 2+ goals
52%
Straelen 3+ goals
25%
Germania Ratingen 1+ goals
75%
Germania Ratingen 2+ goals
40%
Germania Ratingen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Straelen (draw refunded)
60%
Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Straelen at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Germania Ratingen away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.67 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Straelen attack 1.80 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Germania Ratingen attack 1.85 + Straelen defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Straelen scores more
46%
level
23%
Germania Ratingen scores more
31%

Straelen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Straelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Straelen face Germania Ratingen (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with Straelen hosting Germania Ratingen. Match starts February 18, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Straelen host Germania Ratingen at Sportzentrum an der Römerstraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.