Straßwalchen 1–4 UFC Hallein: Result & Stats

Straßwalchen

FT

1 – 4

UFC Hallein

6/7/2024

Landesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 30Straßwalchen Nevoga-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Straßwalchen37%

×Draw22%

UFC Hallein41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StraßwalchenExpected goals in this matchUFC Hallein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.84

Straßwalchen

1.75

UFC Hallein

1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 44 away

2.13

creates per match

1.93

1.76

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Straßwalchen

2.13

UFC Hallein

1.93

allows per match

Straßwalchen

1.76

UFC Hallein

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Straßwalchen+0.00on par

UFC Hallein+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Straßwalchen ↓

UFC Hallein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Straßwalchen or draw

59%

Straßwalchen or UFC Hallein

78%

Draw or UFC Hallein

63%

Winning margin

Straßwalchen wins by 2+

19%

UFC Hallein wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Straßwalchen 1+ goals

83%

Straßwalchen 2+ goals

52%

Straßwalchen 3+ goals

25%

UFC Hallein 1+ goals

84%

UFC Hallein 2+ goals

55%

UFC Hallein 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Straßwalchen (draw refunded)

48%

UFC Hallein (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Straßwalchen at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.76 · 82 matches

UFC Hallein away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.36 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Straßwalchen attack 2.13 + UFC Hallein defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.75

UFC Hallein attack 1.93 + Straßwalchen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Straßwalchen scores more

37%

level

22%

UFC Hallein scores more

41%

UFC Hallein at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UFC Hallein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff