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Straßwalchen vs ÖTSU Hallein — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Straßwalchen
Straßwalchen
CANC
00:00
ÖTSU Hallein
ÖTSU Hallein
4/11/2020Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 18Straßwalchen Nevoga-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Straßwalchen39%
×Draw22%
ÖTSU Hallein39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Straßwalchen
1.78
ÖTSU Hallein
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 23 away

creates per match

Straßwalchen
2.13
ÖTSU Hallein
1.78

allows per match

Straßwalchen
1.76
ÖTSU Hallein
1.43

finishing

Straßwalchen+0.00on par
ÖTSU Hallein+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Straßwalchen ↓

ÖTSU Hallein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Straßwalchen or draw
61%
Straßwalchen or ÖTSU Hallein
78%
Draw or ÖTSU Hallein
61%

Winning margin

Straßwalchen wins by 2+
20%
ÖTSU Hallein wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Straßwalchen 1+ goals
83%
Straßwalchen 2+ goals
53%
Straßwalchen 3+ goals
26%
ÖTSU Hallein 1+ goals
83%
ÖTSU Hallein 2+ goals
53%
ÖTSU Hallein 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Straßwalchen (draw refunded)
50%
ÖTSU Hallein (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Straßwalchen at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.76 · 82 matches

ÖTSU Hallein away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Straßwalchen attack 2.13 + ÖTSU Hallein defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.78

ÖTSU Hallein attack 1.78 + Straßwalchen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Straßwalchen scores more
39%
level
22%
ÖTSU Hallein scores more
39%

Straßwalchen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Straßwalchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Straßwalchen face ÖTSU Hallein (Landesliga - Salzburg)

Landesliga - Salzburg returns with Straßwalchen hosting ÖTSU Hallein. Match starts April 11, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Straßwalchen host ÖTSU Hallein at Straßwalchen Nevoga-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.