Strømsgodset U19 2–5 Molde U19: Result & Stats

Strømsgodset U19

FT

2 – 5

HT: 2 – 3

Molde U19

11/18/2023

Nasjonal U19 Champions League · FinalNordre Åsen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Strømsgodset U1957%

×Draw17%

Molde U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Strømsgodset U19Expected goals in this matchMolde U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.16

2.17

Strømsgodset U19

3.16

Molde U19

2.17

Strømsgodset U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

4.09

creates per match

2.48

1.86

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Strømsgodset U19

4.09

Molde U19

2.48

allows per match

Strømsgodset U19

1.86

Molde U19

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strømsgodset U19+0.00on par

Molde U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strømsgodset U19 ↓

Molde U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–24%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–35%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–15%

4–25%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

60%40%

Double chance

Strømsgodset U19 or draw

74%

Strømsgodset U19 or Molde U19

83%

Draw or Molde U19

43%

Winning margin

Strømsgodset U19 wins by 2+

38%

Molde U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Strømsgodset U19 1+ goals

96%

Strømsgodset U19 2+ goals

82%

Strømsgodset U19 3+ goals

59%

Molde U19 1+ goals

89%

Molde U19 2+ goals

64%

Molde U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Strømsgodset U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Molde U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strømsgodset U19 at home — creates 4.09, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

Molde U19 away — creates 2.48, concedes 2.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strømsgodset U19 attack 4.09 + Molde U19 defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 3.16

Molde U19 attack 2.48 + Strømsgodset U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Strømsgodset U19 scores more

57%

level

17%

Molde U19 scores more

26%

Strømsgodset U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Strømsgodset U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff