Strømsgodset II 1–1 Verdal: Result & Stats

Strømsgodset II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Verdal

4/6/2024

3. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 1Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Strømsgodset II69%

×Draw16%

Verdal15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Strømsgodset IIExpected goals in this matchVerdal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

1.39

Strømsgodset II

3.00

Verdal

1.39

Strømsgodset II creates 116% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.92

creates per match

1.15

1.62

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

Strømsgodset II

2.92

Verdal

1.15

allows per match

Strømsgodset II

1.62

Verdal

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strømsgodset II+0.00on par

Verdal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strømsgodset II ↓

Verdal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Strømsgodset II or draw

85%

Strømsgodset II or Verdal

84%

Draw or Verdal

31%

Winning margin

Strømsgodset II wins by 2+

49%

Verdal wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Strømsgodset II 1+ goals

95%

Strømsgodset II 2+ goals

79%

Strømsgodset II 3+ goals

56%

Verdal 1+ goals

75%

Verdal 2+ goals

40%

Verdal 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Strømsgodset II (draw refunded)

82%

Verdal (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strømsgodset II at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Verdal away — creates 1.15, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strømsgodset II attack 2.92 + Verdal defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 3.00

Verdal attack 1.15 + Strømsgodset II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Strømsgodset II scores more

69%

level

16%

Verdal scores more

15%

Strømsgodset II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Strømsgodset II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff