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Strømsgodset II vs Senja — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Strømsgodset II
Strømsgodset II
FT
7 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Senja
Senja
8/28/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 18Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Strømsgodset II81%
×Draw11%
Senja8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strømsgodset II
3.58
Senja
1.11

Strømsgodset II creates 223% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Strømsgodset II
4.23
Senja
1.00

allows per match

Strømsgodset II
1.23
Senja
2.92

finishing

Strømsgodset II+0.00on par
Senja+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strømsgodset II ↓

Senja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Strømsgodset II or draw
92%
Strømsgodset II or Senja
89%
Draw or Senja
19%

Winning margin

Strømsgodset II wins by 2+
64%
Senja wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Strømsgodset II 1+ goals
97%
Strømsgodset II 2+ goals
86%
Strømsgodset II 3+ goals
67%
Senja 1+ goals
67%
Senja 2+ goals
30%
Senja 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Strømsgodset II (draw refunded)
91%
Senja (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strømsgodset II at home — creates 4.23, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Senja away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strømsgodset II attack 4.23 + Senja defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 3.58

Senja attack 1.00 + Strømsgodset II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Strømsgodset II scores more
81%
level
11%
Senja scores more
8%

Strømsgodset II at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Strømsgodset II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Strømsgodset II vs Senja

Strømsgodset II beat Senja 7-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.