Strømsgodset II 9–1 Mjøndalen II: Result & Stats

Strømsgodset II

FT

9 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Mjøndalen II

10/16/2022

3. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 25Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Strømsgodset II75%

×Draw13%

Mjøndalen II12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Strømsgodset IIExpected goals in this matchMjøndalen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.69

1.50

Strømsgodset II

3.69

Mjøndalen II

1.50

Strømsgodset II creates 146% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

4.23

creates per match

1.77

1.23

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Strømsgodset II

4.23

Mjøndalen II

1.77

allows per match

Strømsgodset II

1.23

Mjøndalen II

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strømsgodset II+0.00on par

Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strømsgodset II ↓

Mjøndalen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Strømsgodset II or draw

88%

Strømsgodset II or Mjøndalen II

87%

Draw or Mjøndalen II

25%

Winning margin

Strømsgodset II wins by 2+

58%

Mjøndalen II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Strømsgodset II 1+ goals

97%

Strømsgodset II 2+ goals

87%

Strømsgodset II 3+ goals

69%

Mjøndalen II 1+ goals

78%

Mjøndalen II 2+ goals

44%

Mjøndalen II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Strømsgodset II (draw refunded)

86%

Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strømsgodset II at home — creates 4.23, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 1.77, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strømsgodset II attack 4.23 + Mjøndalen II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 3.69

Mjøndalen II attack 1.77 + Strømsgodset II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Strømsgodset II scores more

75%

level

13%

Mjøndalen II scores more

12%

Strømsgodset II at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Strømsgodset II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff