Strømsgodset II 4–0 Funnefoss / Vormsund

Strømsgodset II

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Funnefoss / Vormsund

5/9/2022

3. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 5Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Strømsgodset II73%

×Draw14%

Funnefoss / Vormsund13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Strømsgodset IIExpected goals in this matchFunnefoss / Vormsund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.12

1.27

Strømsgodset II

3.12

Funnefoss / Vormsund

1.27

Strømsgodset II creates 146% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

4.23

creates per match

1.31

1.23

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Strømsgodset II

4.23

Funnefoss / Vormsund

1.31

allows per match

Strømsgodset II

1.23

Funnefoss / Vormsund

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strømsgodset II+0.00on par

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strømsgodset II ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Strømsgodset II or draw

87%

Strømsgodset II or Funnefoss / Vormsund

86%

Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund

27%

Winning margin

Strømsgodset II wins by 2+

54%

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Strømsgodset II 1+ goals

95%

Strømsgodset II 2+ goals

81%

Strømsgodset II 3+ goals

59%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals

72%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals

36%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Strømsgodset II (draw refunded)

85%

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strømsgodset II at home — creates 4.23, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strømsgodset II attack 4.23 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.12

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.31 + Strømsgodset II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Strømsgodset II scores more

73%

level

14%

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more

13%

Strømsgodset II at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Strømsgodset II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff