Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

STPS vs PEPO — Suomen Cup 2018

STPS
STPS
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 1
PEPO
PEPO
4/26/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundNoblessa Areena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

STPS4%
×Draw7%
PEPO89%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

STPS
1.17
PEPO
4.88

PEPO creates 317% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

creates per match

STPS
0.67
PEPO
3.42

allows per match

STPS
6.33
PEPO
1.67

finishing

STPS+0.00on par
PEPO+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

STPS ↓

PEPO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–24%
0–36%
0–47%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–34%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

STPS or draw
11%
STPS or PEPO
93%
Draw or PEPO
96%

Winning margin

STPS wins by 2+
1%
PEPO wins by 2+
77%

Team goals

STPS 1+ goals
69%
STPS 2+ goals
33%
STPS 3+ goals
11%
PEPO 1+ goals
99%
PEPO 2+ goals
94%
PEPO 3+ goals
83%

Draw no bet

STPS (draw refunded)
5%
PEPO (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

STPS at home — creates 0.67, concedes 6.33 · 3 matches

PEPO away — creates 3.42, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

STPS attack 0.67 + PEPO defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

PEPO attack 3.42 + STPS defence 6.33 → ÷2 → 4.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

STPS scores more
4%
level
7%
PEPO scores more
89%

PEPO at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "PEPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: STPS vs PEPO

PEPO beat STPS 6-0 in Suomen Cup on April 26, 2023.

The match was played at Noblessa Areena TN in Savonlinna.