Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stotfold vs Aylesbury United — League #933 2026

Stotfold
Stotfold
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Aylesbury United
Aylesbury United
1/10/2026League #933League #933 · Southern Central - 26The JSJ Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stotfold30%
×Draw24%
Aylesbury United46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stotfold
1.28
Aylesbury United
1.66

Aylesbury United creates 30% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

creates per match

Stotfold
1.06
Aylesbury United
1.50

allows per match

Stotfold
1.81
Aylesbury United
1.50

finishing

Stotfold+0.00on par
Aylesbury United+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stotfold ↓

Aylesbury United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stotfold or draw
54%
Stotfold or Aylesbury United
76%
Draw or Aylesbury United
70%

Winning margin

Stotfold wins by 2+
13%
Aylesbury United wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Stotfold 1+ goals
72%
Stotfold 2+ goals
37%
Stotfold 3+ goals
14%
Aylesbury United 1+ goals
81%
Aylesbury United 2+ goals
49%
Aylesbury United 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Stotfold (draw refunded)
39%
Aylesbury United (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stotfold at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Aylesbury United away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stotfold attack 1.06 + Aylesbury United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.28

Aylesbury United attack 1.50 + Stotfold defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stotfold scores more
30%
level
24%
Aylesbury United scores more
46%

Aylesbury United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aylesbury United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stotfold vs Aylesbury United

Stotfold beat Aylesbury United 2-1 in League #933 on January 10, 2026.

The match was played at The JSJ Stadium in Stotfold.