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Stord vs Gneist — 3. Division - Girone 3 2026

Stord
Stord
Preview
12:00
Gneist
Gneist
10/17/20263. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Round 24
49%
Stord
model favours
49%19%32%
2–2
likely score
86%
over 2.5 goals
82%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stord49%
×Draw19%
Gneist32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stord
2.67
Gneist
2.17

Stord creates 23% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Stord
2.17
Gneist
1.67

allows per match

Stord
2.67
Gneist
3.17

finishing

Stord+0.00on par
Gneist+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stord ↓

Gneist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Stord or draw
68%
Stord or Gneist
81%
Draw or Gneist
51%

Winning margin

Stord wins by 2+
31%
Gneist wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stord 1+ goals
93%
Stord 2+ goals
74%
Stord 3+ goals
49%
Gneist 1+ goals
89%
Gneist 2+ goals
64%
Gneist 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Stord (draw refunded)
60%
Gneist (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stord at home — creates 2.17, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Gneist away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stord attack 2.17 + Gneist defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.67

Gneist attack 1.67 + Stord defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stord scores more
49%
level
19%
Gneist scores more
32%

Stord at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Stord
WDWDL
Gneist
LLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stord face Gneist (3. Division - Girone 3)

3. Division - Girone 3 returns with Stord hosting Gneist. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.