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Gneist vs Stord — 3. Division - Girone 3 2026

Gneist
Gneist
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Stord
Stord
O. Majewski 88'
J. Toftesund 18', 7'
J. H. Gjerde 90'
L. Andal 47'
R. B. Ekeland 26', 11'
4/18/20263. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gneist37%
×Draw19%
Stord43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gneist
2.25
Stord
2.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Gneist
2.67
Stord
1.67

allows per match

Gneist
3.17
Stord
1.83

finishing

Gneist+0.00on par
Stord+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gneist ↓

Stord →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Gneist or draw
57%
Gneist or Stord
81%
Draw or Stord
63%

Winning margin

Gneist wins by 2+
21%
Stord wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Gneist 1+ goals
89%
Gneist 2+ goals
65%
Gneist 3+ goals
39%
Stord 1+ goals
91%
Stord 2+ goals
69%
Stord 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Gneist (draw refunded)
46%
Stord (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gneist at home — creates 2.67, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Stord away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gneist attack 2.67 + Stord defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.25

Stord attack 1.67 + Gneist defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gneist scores more
37%
level
19%
Stord scores more
43%

Stord at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
J. Toftesund
11'
R. B. Ekeland
18'
J. Toftesund
26'
R. B. Ekeland
47'
L. Andal
80'
H. O. Rinde
80'
H. O. Rinde
88'
O. Majewski
90'
J. H. Gjerde
90'
J. Eide
90'
J. Eide

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gneist vs Stord

Stord beat Gneist 4-3 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on April 18, 2026.

Goals: J. Toftesund (7', 18'), R. B. Ekeland (11', 26'), L. Andal (47'), O. Majewski (88'), J. H. Gjerde (90').