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Stord vs Frøya — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Stord
Stord
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Frøya
Frøya
J. H. Stoknes 24'
J. Hanes 85'
H. Hodnefjell 51'
D. Pettersen 47', 26', 21'
7/10/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 15Stord Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Stord45%
×Draw21%
Frøya34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stord
2.17
Frøya
1.86

Stord creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Stord
1.69
Frøya
1.65

allows per match

Stord
2.08
Frøya
2.65

finishing

Stord+0.00on par
Frøya+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stord ↓

Frøya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Stord or draw
66%
Stord or Frøya
79%
Draw or Frøya
55%

Winning margin

Stord wins by 2+
26%
Frøya wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stord 1+ goals
89%
Stord 2+ goals
64%
Stord 3+ goals
36%
Frøya 1+ goals
84%
Frøya 2+ goals
55%
Frøya 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Stord (draw refunded)
57%
Frøya (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stord at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Frøya away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stord attack 1.69 + Frøya defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.17

Frøya attack 1.65 + Stord defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stord scores more
45%
level
21%
Frøya scores more
34%

Stord at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
D. Pettersen
24'
J. H. Stoknes
26'
D. Pettersen
47'
D. Pettersen
51'
H. Hodnefjell
85'
J. Hanes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stord 1 – 5 Frøya

Frøya beat Stord 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on July 10, 2024.

Goals: D. Pettersen (21', 26', 47'), J. H. Stoknes (24'), H. Hodnefjell (51'), J. Hanes (85').

The match was played at Stord Stadion in Leirvik.