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Stord vs Fana — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Stord
Stord
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Fana
Fana
5/25/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 8Stord Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Stord33%
×Draw21%
Fana46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stord
1.84
Fana
2.20

Fana creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Stord
1.69
Fana
2.31

allows per match

Stord
2.08
Fana
2.00

finishing

Stord+0.00on par
Fana+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stord ↓

Fana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Stord or draw
54%
Stord or Fana
79%
Draw or Fana
67%

Winning margin

Stord wins by 2+
17%
Fana wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Stord 1+ goals
84%
Stord 2+ goals
55%
Stord 3+ goals
28%
Fana 1+ goals
89%
Fana 2+ goals
64%
Fana 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Stord (draw refunded)
42%
Fana (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stord at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Fana away — creates 2.31, concedes 2.00 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stord attack 1.69 + Fana defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Fana attack 2.31 + Stord defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stord scores more
33%
level
21%
Fana scores more
46%

Fana at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stord vs Fana

Fana beat Stord 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stord Stadion in Leirvik.