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Stord vs Årdal — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Stord
Stord
FT
5 – 2
Årdal
Årdal
10/23/20213. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 12Stord Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stord74%
×Draw14%
Årdal13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stord
3.42
Årdal
1.42

Stord creates 141% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Stord
3.00
Årdal
0.67

allows per match

Stord
2.17
Årdal
3.83

finishing

Stord+0.00on par
Årdal+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stord ↓

Årdal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Stord or draw
87%
Stord or Årdal
86%
Draw or Årdal
26%

Winning margin

Stord wins by 2+
55%
Årdal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Stord 1+ goals
97%
Stord 2+ goals
85%
Stord 3+ goals
64%
Årdal 1+ goals
76%
Årdal 2+ goals
41%
Årdal 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stord (draw refunded)
85%
Årdal (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stord at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Årdal away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stord attack 3.00 + Årdal defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 3.42

Årdal attack 0.67 + Stord defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Stord scores more
74%
level
14%
Årdal scores more
13%

Stord at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Stord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stord 5 – 2 Årdal

Stord beat Årdal 5-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stord Stadion in Leirvik.