Stomilanki Olsztyn W 1–0 UJ Krakow W

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

UJ Krakow W

5/26/2024

Ekstraliga Women · Round 21Stadion Dajtki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Stomilanki Olsztyn W30%

×Draw23%

UJ Krakow W47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stomilanki Olsztyn WExpected goals in this matchUJ Krakow W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.80

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

1.39

UJ Krakow W

1.80

UJ Krakow W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 22 away

0.91

creates per match

0.82

2.79

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

0.91

UJ Krakow W

0.82

allows per match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

2.79

UJ Krakow W

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stomilanki Olsztyn W+0.00on par

UJ Krakow W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomilanki Olsztyn W ↓

UJ Krakow W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Stomilanki Olsztyn W or draw

53%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W or UJ Krakow W

77%

Draw or UJ Krakow W

70%

Winning margin

Stomilanki Olsztyn W wins by 2+

13%

UJ Krakow W wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Stomilanki Olsztyn W 1+ goals

75%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W 2+ goals

40%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W 3+ goals

16%

UJ Krakow W 1+ goals

83%

UJ Krakow W 2+ goals

54%

UJ Krakow W 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Stomilanki Olsztyn W (draw refunded)

39%

UJ Krakow W (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomilanki Olsztyn W at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

UJ Krakow W away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W attack 0.91 + UJ Krakow W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.39

UJ Krakow W attack 0.82 + Stomilanki Olsztyn W defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stomilanki Olsztyn W scores more

30%

level

23%

UJ Krakow W scores more

47%

UJ Krakow W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UJ Krakow W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff