Stomilanki Olsztyn W 1–3 Rekord Bielsko-Biala W

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W

5/10/2026

Ekstraliga Women · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Stomilanki Olsztyn W25%

×Draw22%

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stomilanki Olsztyn WExpected goals in this matchRekord Bielsko-Biala W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

2.00

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

1.32

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W

2.00

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W creates 52% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

0.91

creates per match

1.21

2.79

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

0.91

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W

1.21

allows per match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

2.79

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stomilanki Olsztyn W+0.00on par

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomilanki Olsztyn W ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Stomilanki Olsztyn W or draw

47%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W or Rekord Bielsko-Biala W

78%

Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biala W

75%

Winning margin

Stomilanki Olsztyn W wins by 2+

11%

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Stomilanki Olsztyn W 1+ goals

73%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W 2+ goals

38%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W 3+ goals

15%

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 1+ goals

86%

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 2+ goals

59%

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Stomilanki Olsztyn W (draw refunded)

32%

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomilanki Olsztyn W at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W attack 0.91 + Rekord Bielsko-Biala W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.32

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W attack 1.21 + Stomilanki Olsztyn W defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Stomilanki Olsztyn W scores more

25%

level

22%

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W scores more

53%

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biala W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff