Stomilanki Olsztyn W 1–4 Akademia Piłkarska LG W

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

FT

1 – 4

Akademia Piłkarska LG W

9/22/2024

Ekstraliga Women · Round 6Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Stomilanki Olsztyn W28%

×Draw22%

Akademia Piłkarska LG W50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stomilanki Olsztyn WExpected goals in this matchAkademia Piłkarska LG W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.96

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

1.44

Akademia Piłkarska LG W

1.96

Akademia Piłkarska LG W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

0.91

creates per match

1.13

2.79

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

0.91

Akademia Piłkarska LG W

1.13

allows per match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

2.79

Akademia Piłkarska LG W

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stomilanki Olsztyn W+0.00on par

Akademia Piłkarska LG W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomilanki Olsztyn W ↓

Akademia Piłkarska LG W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Stomilanki Olsztyn W or draw

50%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W or Akademia Piłkarska LG W

78%

Draw or Akademia Piłkarska LG W

72%

Winning margin

Stomilanki Olsztyn W wins by 2+

13%

Akademia Piłkarska LG W wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Stomilanki Olsztyn W 1+ goals

76%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W 2+ goals

42%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W 3+ goals

18%

Akademia Piłkarska LG W 1+ goals

86%

Akademia Piłkarska LG W 2+ goals

58%

Akademia Piłkarska LG W 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Stomilanki Olsztyn W (draw refunded)

36%

Akademia Piłkarska LG W (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomilanki Olsztyn W at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

Akademia Piłkarska LG W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W attack 0.91 + Akademia Piłkarska LG W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.44

Akademia Piłkarska LG W attack 1.13 + Stomilanki Olsztyn W defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stomilanki Olsztyn W scores more

28%

level

22%

Akademia Piłkarska LG W scores more

50%

Akademia Piłkarska LG W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Akademia Piłkarska LG W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff