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Stomil Olsztyn vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — I Liga 2018

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
11/7/2021I LigaI Liga · Round 16Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn39%
×Draw28%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.26
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.13

Stomil Olsztyn creates 12% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 85 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.04
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.94

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.31
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.48

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
67%
Stomil Olsztyn or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
72%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
61%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
17%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
72%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
36%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
13%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
68%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
31%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
54%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.26

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.94 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
39%
level
28%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
33%

Stomil Olsztyn at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Stomil Olsztyn 3–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Stomil Olsztyn beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3-1 in I Liga on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.