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Stomil Olsztyn vs Wigry Suwałki — I Liga 2018

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Wigry Suwałki
Wigry Suwałki
S. Sobczak 42'
G. Lech 31'
B. Bida 82'
3/16/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 24Stadion OSiR (Olsztyn)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn45%
×Draw27%
Wigry Suwałki28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.40
Wigry Suwałki
1.05

Stomil Olsztyn creates 33% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.04
Wigry Suwałki
0.79

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.31
Wigry Suwałki
1.76

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Wigry Suwałki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
72%
Stomil Olsztyn or Wigry Suwałki
73%
Draw or Wigry Suwałki
55%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
21%
Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
75%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
41%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
17%
Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals
65%
Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals
28%
Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
61%
Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

Wigry Suwałki away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.40

Wigry Suwałki attack 0.79 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
45%
level
27%
Wigry Suwałki scores more
28%

Stomil Olsztyn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
G. Lech
42'
S. Sobczak
82'
B. Bida

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Stomil Olsztyn 2–1 Wigry Suwałki

Stomil Olsztyn beat Wigry Suwałki 2-1 in I Liga on March 16, 2019.

Goals: G. Lech (31'), S. Sobczak (42'), B. Bida (82').

The match was played at Stadion OSiR (Olsztyn).