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Stomil Olsztyn vs Stal Mielec — I Liga 2018

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
5/18/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 34Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn32%
×Draw26%
Stal Mielec42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.17
Stal Mielec
1.39

Stal Mielec creates 19% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.04
Stal Mielec
1.47

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.31
Stal Mielec
1.29

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Stal Mielec+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Stal Mielec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
58%
Stomil Olsztyn or Stal Mielec
74%
Draw or Stal Mielec
68%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
13%
Stal Mielec wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
69%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
33%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
11%
Stal Mielec 1+ goals
75%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
40%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
43%
Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

Stal Mielec away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + Stal Mielec defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Stal Mielec attack 1.47 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
32%
level
26%
Stal Mielec scores more
42%

Stal Mielec at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Stomil Olsztyn 2–5 Stal Mielec

Stal Mielec beat Stomil Olsztyn 5-2 in I Liga on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR.