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Stomil Olsztyn vs Sokół Aleksandrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
4/12/2025III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn39%
×Draw24%
Sokół Aleksandrów37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.56
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 52 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.41
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.13

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.88
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.71

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
63%
Stomil Olsztyn or Sokół Aleksandrów
76%
Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów
61%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
19%
Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
79%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
46%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
21%
Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
78%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
44%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
52%
Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.41 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
39%
level
24%
Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
37%

Stomil Olsztyn at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Stomil Olsztyn 2–1 Sokół Aleksandrów

Stomil Olsztyn beat Sokół Aleksandrów 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.