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Stomil Olsztyn vs Radunia Stężyca — II Liga - East 2019

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
5/25/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 34Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn48%
×Draw25%
Radunia Stężyca27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.64
Radunia Stężyca
1.16

Stomil Olsztyn creates 41% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 61 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.49
Radunia Stężyca
1.25

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.06
Radunia Stężyca
1.79

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
73%
Stomil Olsztyn or Radunia Stężyca
75%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
52%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
25%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
81%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
49%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
23%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
69%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
32%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
64%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.49 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.64

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.25 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
48%
level
25%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
27%

Stomil Olsztyn at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Stomil Olsztyn 2–3 Radunia Stężyca

Radunia Stężyca beat Stomil Olsztyn 3-2 in II Liga - East on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.