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Stomil Olsztyn vs Podbeskidzie — I Liga 2018

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Podbeskidzie
Podbeskidzie
11/24/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 20Stadion OSiR (Olsztyn)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn36%
×Draw26%
Podbeskidzie37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.29
Podbeskidzie
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 85 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.04
Podbeskidzie
1.31

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.31
Podbeskidzie
1.55

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Podbeskidzie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
63%
Stomil Olsztyn or Podbeskidzie
74%
Draw or Podbeskidzie
64%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
16%
Podbeskidzie wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
72%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
37%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
14%
Podbeskidzie 1+ goals
73%
Podbeskidzie 2+ goals
38%
Podbeskidzie 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
49%
Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

Podbeskidzie away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.55 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Podbeskidzie attack 1.31 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
36%
level
26%
Podbeskidzie scores more
37%

Podbeskidzie at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Podbeskidzie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stomil Olsztyn vs Podbeskidzie

Podbeskidzie beat Stomil Olsztyn 2-0 in I Liga on November 24, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR (Olsztyn).