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Stomil Olsztyn vs Odra Opole — I Liga 2018

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Odra Opole
Odra Opole
9/16/2020I LigaI Liga · Round 2Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn39%
×Draw27%
Odra Opole34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.32
Odra Opole
1.20

Stomil Olsztyn creates 10% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 138 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.04
Odra Opole
1.08

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.31
Odra Opole
1.60

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Odra Opole+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Odra Opole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
66%
Stomil Olsztyn or Odra Opole
73%
Draw or Odra Opole
61%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
18%
Odra Opole wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
73%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
38%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
15%
Odra Opole 1+ goals
70%
Odra Opole 2+ goals
34%
Odra Opole 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
54%
Odra Opole (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

Odra Opole away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.60 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + Odra Opole defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.32

Odra Opole attack 1.08 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
39%
level
27%
Odra Opole scores more
34%

Stomil Olsztyn at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stomil Olsztyn vs Odra Opole

Odra Opole beat Stomil Olsztyn 1-0 in I Liga on September 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.