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Stomil Olsztyn vs Motor Lublin — II Liga - East 2019

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
3/26/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 24Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn43%
×Draw27%
Motor Lublin30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.37
Motor Lublin
1.09

Stomil Olsztyn creates 26% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 53 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.49
Motor Lublin
1.13

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.06
Motor Lublin
1.25

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Motor Lublin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Motor Lublin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
70%
Stomil Olsztyn or Motor Lublin
73%
Draw or Motor Lublin
57%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
20%
Motor Lublin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
75%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
40%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
16%
Motor Lublin 1+ goals
66%
Motor Lublin 2+ goals
30%
Motor Lublin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
59%
Motor Lublin (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Motor Lublin away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.49 + Motor Lublin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.37

Motor Lublin attack 1.13 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
43%
level
27%
Motor Lublin scores more
30%

Stomil Olsztyn at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stomil Olsztyn vs Motor Lublin

Stomil Olsztyn beat Motor Lublin 2-1 in II Liga - East on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.